Energy prices - gone nuts.

[Fantazia2]

Yeah, also saying incoming mains is not enough to charge batteries is complete rubbish, people have 10KW Power Showers in homes that they run without issue, and I dont think many battery systems out there will even let you charge at that rate, normally its recommended to charge at no more than 50% capacity, so a 12KWH battery should be charged at no more than 6KW and I doubt the wiring to the battery would even cope well with that as your talking about around 120amps for the standard nominal 48v of standard storage systems.

6KWh at 240v is about 25amps so you wouldnt have any problem charging your car and batteries overnight at the same time, also most inverters when you schedule a charging from grid timer can also be configured to set maximum charge rates so you could also limit how fast the batteries charge if there would be issues with maxing out the connection.

 

[taz turbo]

Both those prices seem crazy to me though, quoting for 445w and 450w panels, even buying myself direct 20x panels is only going to cost about £4000, not sure on the battery costs but cant see an inverter and that level of sotrage being more than £10,000 so the mounting and installation costs seem excessive. Possibly companies are starting to take the **** a bit with the current demand.

I couldn't agree more on costs, company a) gave a couple of options, one system with 16 panels, one with 18. When in discussion it was explained 16 would be 'better' than 18, as 16 panels can be fitted in one day, for 18 panels it would take 2 days, extra cost £3500, I'm aware the two panels cost ITRO £500, so £3K/day for fitting!!!

 

[Tony]

Good evening all, as usual I'm late to the party, thinking about solar panels, just had a quote from www.solarfast.co.uk. has anyone had any experience with these? they are based in Castleford, top and bottom of quote is :-
15 Tier 1 385w black panels
2 Greenlinx 3.2kwh battery's
1 x Lux 3600 3.6kw hybrid inverter
all fitted scaffold certs etc.
£15,278.00

The surveyor didn't really understand the immersion heater question?, but did try and tell me that the battery would top up automatically from the grid at night at cheap rate? to which I offered "only if I'd have signed up to a cheaper night tariff" so there wasn't really automatic?

Couple of questions, if anyone can answer?
1) I think they are quoting that the solar system will save me about 50% of my electric usage, I'd got it in my head that potentially I'd save more? possibly 75%? what is anyone's experience?
2) Anyone used Solarfast?
3) Anyone used Greenlinx or Lux (data sheets attached)
4) anyone recommend anyone that they have used?

Thanks Tony

 

[Deleted member 2463]

I'm currently looking in to solar / battery storage, so far spoken with two (allegedly, hmm) reputable companies...

Had a couple of quotations do far...
a) 18 panels (8.1Kw) + 3 batteries (total 15.3Kw) = £22,500
b) 20 panels (8.9Kw) + 2? batteries (total 12Kw) = 25,225

Option a totally dismissed batteries as viable, even though THEY suggested the house is empty all day! They also dismissed feed in tariff as they are so small its not worth bothering about! Also dismissed panels on the south facing side of the house as they would only fit 3-5 panels on there its not worth it due to the scaffolding costs (which were a surprisingly low £190 to scaffold the two areas they suggested fitting panels).

Option b suggested batteries, charge them at night on an off peak tariff and use that energy during the day, 'however charging my EV and storage batteries would be slow as there wouldn't be sufficient supply to the house to do this'!!!! My EV charges at 32A, he couldn't tell me what the storage batteries charge at, 'but it will be too much!' The house is 100A incoming, so just more 'Solar Salesman BS' I fear. Also suggested, and this is where it seems laughable to me, 'fit a small system so I don't have to get a certificate', 'no thanks mate, my annual usage is higher than average, 'surely a larger system than average would be more suitable?' to which he then (chance of sale diminishing) agreed and suggested the above. Also suggested at one point fitting 17 panels on the NORTH side of the garage/games room roof, this surprised me, I suggested surely the 7-8 on the south side of the roof + 3-5 on the south side of the house roof would be better and more cost effective. Apparently you CAN'T fit the panels to any more than two aspects, when I asked why he explained 'reasons'! Grrrr, sounds like some lazy ****d reason here to me, however he wouldn't elaborate.

I asked both about the Tesla batteries / tariff, both rolled their eyes, then given lots of excuses rather than reasons as to why, the purchase of Twitter was sited as a reason NOT to use these batteries! Yes really!

So my questions....

Can anyone give any advise on panels on multi roof faces?
Can anyone recommend any companies who operate within the North West.
Are Solar salesmen(salespeople) just the new double glazing nightmare?

Chris.

you are being ripped off mate.

I had 18 panels, Canadian solar, installed with 9kw's worth of panels and 10.4kw of battery for £14K All FoxESS system stuff. 2.4Kw of battery is around £900 - I sourced the batteries myself and let them do the battery controller.

There are limitations in the investors on the number of strings you can have, many state more but when you use them you introduce other limitations. Also make sure they have the shading right because adding more aspects isn't that big a deal.

 

[Deleted member 2463]

Good evening all, as usual I'm late to the party, thinking about solar panels, just had a quote from www.solarfast.co.uk. has anyone had any experience with these? they are based in Castleford, top and bottom of quote is :-
15 Tier 1 385w black panels
2 Greenlinx 3.2kwh battery's
1 x Lux 3600 3.6kw hybrid inverter
all fitted scaffold certs etc.
£15,278.00

The surveyor didn't really understand the immersion heater question?, but did try and tell me that the battery would top up automatically from the grid at night at cheap rate? to which I offered "only if I'd have signed up to a cheaper night tariff" so there wasn't really automatic?

Couple of questions, if anyone can answer?
1) I think they are quoting that the solar system will save me about 50% of my electric usage, I'd got it in my head that potentially I'd save more? possibly 75%? what is anyone's experience?
2) Anyone used Solarfast?
3) Anyone used Greenlinx or Lux (data sheets attached)
4) anyone recommend anyone that they have used?

Thanks Tony

The price isn't bad but they should use better panels I'd be inclined to increase the capacity of the inverter or ask them how much battery you can use with it that way you can plug more batteries in. I'm a heavy electric user and my system charges up my 9kw battery super quickly, so much so I'm doubling it as I'm struggling to use the power during the day and thats even in winter. Worth google for the units yourself and make sure they aren't taking the ****. To install my system took 4 hours.

 

[Tony]

Thanks Neil

 

[Calimori]

Agree with Neil.
The panels seem old stock as many are pushing 420w.
The inverter is too small as it will cap at 3600w vs your system which could kick out 5775w. Now this is assuming they are all on the south facing aspect with perfect sun light hitting them and no trees. But I have 8 similar panels on the south south east facing with trees to the east and a roof apex to the west and I hit the 3600 a few times during a nice spring. Your panels could max out a lot.

More battery storage would be considered, especially if you know what your daily usage is more than that.

 

[Tony]

Thanks @Calimori & @Neil McRae it probably makes sense regarding the inverter being bigger, I can’t seem to find much about there panels apart from “Tier 1”?? It’s good to know there are 420w panels available

 

[JT.]

I can't believe how much people are spending on these tbh - there's no way there'll be a return on these levels of investment - in the case of some of these quotes people are going to be £10-15k-ish out of pocket over the 10 year lifetime of the system. For anyone looking into this for purely financial reasons, I did some calcs and a spreadsheet in a message somewhere back up this post showing how breaking even is pretty much the best case.

 

[russdx1]

Good evening all, as usual I'm late to the party, thinking about solar panels, just had a quote from www.solarfast.co.uk. has anyone had any experience with these? they are based in Castleford, top and bottom of quote is :-
15 Tier 1 385w black panels
2 Greenlinx 3.2kwh battery's
1 x Lux 3600 3.6kw hybrid inverter
all fitted scaffold certs etc.
£15,278.00

The surveyor didn't really understand the immersion heater question?, but did try and tell me that the battery would top up automatically from the grid at night at cheap rate? to which I offered "only if I'd have signed up to a cheaper night tariff" so there wasn't really automatic?

Couple of questions, if anyone can answer?
1) I think they are quoting that the solar system will save me about 50% of my electric usage, I'd got it in my head that potentially I'd save more? possibly 75%? what is anyone's experience?
2) Anyone used Solarfast?
3) Anyone used Greenlinx or Lux (data sheets attached)
4) anyone recommend anyone that they have used?

Thanks Tony
View attachment 193008

View attachment 193009View attachment 193010

Price seams little on high side to me plus those panels wattage add up to like twice the size of the inverter which is a little strange.

Regarding usage, all depends on how much power you use and when you use it but if your careful you can almost get that number to be like 90-100% off grid over the summer months.

 

[Tony]

Thanks @russdx1 I’ll getting the feeling that they have just done the number of panels on the size of the roof, yes inverter now looks small, re usage I can probably understand summer months being higher, and yes there are a number of variables, but over the entire year what % of your bill do you think you save?

 

[russdx1]

I can't believe how much people are spending on these tbh - there's no way there'll be a return on these levels of investment - in the case of some of these quotes people are going to be £10-15k-ish out of pocket over the 10 year lifetime of the system. For anyone looking into this for purely financial reasons, I did some calcs and a spreadsheet in a message somewhere back up this post showing how breaking even is pretty much the best case.

I’m coming up to a year now of having them so getting a pretty good picture of savings. I think my system was a bit over 12k and I’d currently be paying 3k a year on gas/electric but just pay £50 a month which covers everything (go into debit over winter but export + no gas over summer will fill this back up)

So long as prices stay where they are at and it does not break, technically it should pay for itself in like 4/5 years? I did buy another 5.8k bat so make that 5/6 years

That’s my crappy math anyway, I’ll post more results in another year

 

[JT.]

I’m coming up to a year now of having them so getting a pretty good picture of savings. I think my system was a bit over 12k and I’d currently be paying 3k a year on gas/electric but just pay £50 a month which covers everything (go into debit over winter but export + no gas over summer will fill this back up)

So long as prices stay where they are at and it does not break, technically it should pay for itself in like 4/5 years? I did buy another 5.8k bat so make that 5/6 years

That’s my crappy math anyway, I’ll post more results in another year

Did you include the 'opportunity cost' in that though Russ? Nearly everyone, solar salesmen included, include all the savings in their calcs but only part of the costs. So, say you were investing £10k in solar, that's £10k that cannot be invested for compound interest in a bank over 10 years - so not only does it cost you whatever the solar salesman charges you, it costs you more again because you lose out on this investment income. This is standard accountancy practice when making investment choices, but often overlooked (and always overlooked by salesmen and their return-on-investment spreadsheets!).

At a fixed and guaranteed interest rates available now (never mind those we'll see over the next year as interest rates keep rising to tackle inflation), if I remember rightly from my previous calcs, that loss of compound interest doubled the true cost of solar. The detail is all in that earlier post I made.

 

[russdx1]

Did you include the 'opportunity cost' in that though Russ? Nearly everyone, solar salesmen included, include all the savings in their calcs but only part of the costs. So, say you were investing £10k in solar, that's £10k that cannot be invested for compound interest in a bank over 10 years - so not only does it cost you whatever the solar salesman charges you, it costs you more again because you lose out on this investment income. This is standard accountancy practice when making investment choices, but often overlooked (and always overlooked by salesmen and their return-on-investment spreadsheets!).

At a fixed and guaranteed interest rates available now (never mind those we'll see over the next year as interest rates keep rising to tackle inflation), if I remember rightly from my previous calcs, that loss of compound interest doubled the true cost of solar. The detail is all in that earlier post I made.

No those are all my calculations not salesman.

I mainly installed them because I thought they was cool and the idea of being off grid half the year was cool as well was not just to try and save money in the long run I love all this nerdy tech

If I had not bought the panels I’d just have a 10k stern pinball sat in my garage but don’t think that would of been as useful (but maybe a better investment over 10 years?? Hehe)

 

[Calimori]

@JT. That view is purely about finances. And I know a lot of people talk about solar and saving money but there is a lot more to it than that.
Any home improvement could be argued in a similar way. Buying a car also. Not everything needs an opportunity cost comparison.

My calculations show I avoided spending about £3k on electricity in 2022 due to generation and a favourable tariff due to my storage option.

 

[JT.]

@JT. That view is purely about finances.

Yeah, I specifically stated that in my post

 

[Deleted member 2463]

I can't believe how much people are spending on these tbh - there's no way there'll be a return on these levels of investment - in the case of some of these quotes people are going to be £10-15k-ish out of pocket over the 10 year lifetime of the system. For anyone looking into this for purely financial reasons, I did some calcs and a spreadsheet in a message somewhere back up this post showing how breaking even is pretty much the best case.

looking at my past 4 years usage mine will payback in 5.5 years...

Neil.

 

[Deleted member 2463]

Did you include the 'opportunity cost' in that though Russ? Nearly everyone, solar salesmen included, include all the savings in their calcs but only part of the costs. So, say you were investing £10k in solar, that's £10k that cannot be invested for compound interest in a bank over 10 years - so not only does it cost you whatever the solar salesman charges you, it costs you more again because you lose out on this investment income. This is standard accountancy practice when making investment choices, but often overlooked (and always overlooked by salesmen and their return-on-investment spreadsheets!).

At a fixed and guaranteed interest rates available now (never mind those we'll see over the next year as interest rates keep rising to tackle inflation), if I remember rightly from my previous calcs, that loss of compound interest doubled the true cost of solar. The detail is all in that earlier post I made.

if you plan to move in <6 years then its mad to get solar but with inflation at its current rate and interest rates not high enough (plus taxation increasing) solar isn't the worst investment. Its not the best either but if you look at over ten years assuming energy goes back to what it was in 3/4 years its still way more than break even.

 

[JT.]

if you plan to move in <6 years then its mad to get solar but with inflation at its current rate and interest rates not high enough (plus taxation increasing) solar isn't the worst investment. Its not the best either but if you look at over ten years assuming energy goes back to what it was in 3/4 years its still way more than break even.

Moving house is a killer that my previous calcs didn't bother trying to consider tbh, but yeah, that scenario makes it even less worth while. Not actually being alive will probably be an issue (or not, depending on your perspective I guess) for a fair few in the average age range of pinball info too.

But I used some fairly generous assumptions about energy prices/interest rates, and 10 years was the best case the calc spat out. It's all in the spreadsheet in that earlier post, so the detail could be challenged.

For those quotes mentioned earlier at £20k+ specifically, that'd be a massive amount of money lost versus not buying it.

 

[PAX]

Lithium Ion - Batteries

Whether You Need Solar Panels or Solar Power Systems, We Have Them Here. Contact Us Today. From Solar Panels to Power Systems, We Have Them Here. Contact Us for Any Inquiries. LED Street Lights. Batteries & Storage. Protection & Monitoring.

voltaconsolar.com

Anyone had dealings with this company, prices seem reasonable?

 

[PAX]

I've been thinking about moving suppliers... this se

View attachment 147964

Ahh, the Good Old Days - who's old enough to remember this back in, er 2021

 

[Pick Holder]

Strange thing is we all know batteries deteriorate over the years. So once your system 'pays for itself' maybe in 5 - 10 years, some of the batteries will need changing - if not all. By then better panels will be around, as will better batteries - so you will upgrade your installation. Spend another £10K+ and then repeat cycle.....

If by some absolute miracle energy prices drop (yes I am being very optomistic saying this) - then it will take longer to get your money back.

As a qualified electrician and someone who installed wind turbines in the home enviroment when they first came out 15 years ago..... I would advise my friends to buy a wood burning stove, with a back boiler.

Have two friends who are installing solar panels now, they have told me they are fitting substandard panels in as that is all they can get. Demand is so high they are commanding silly prices on the high quality ones (if you can get them). Both of these guys do not have them on their own properties.......

 

[russdx1]

i'll almost certainly be moving in 6-7 years. But like i said i just think they are cool and i'll stick a newer BIGGER system on next house

 

[JT.]

i'll almost certainly be moving in 6-7 years. But like i said i just think they are cool and i'll stick a newer BIGGER system on next house

I think that's a good plan - I'd be very surprised if a Labour government don't heavily subsidise retro-fitting of home solar as part of their green policies, so it'll be financially compelling too. This seems like an absolute no-brainer to me - more so than the current government subsidies for retro fitting air and ground source systems, which is a non-starter for many (most!?!) people due to the many well-documented obstacles to retro-fitting that tech.

 

[Calimori]

We seem to be repeating a lot of old chats already had in the previous 58 pages, probably because it is tough to go back and find it.

I have just managed to find @JT. opportunity cost calculator (end of page 40). There are few things that jumped out 6 months later that could be worth refining. Please call out anything I have missed or got wrong. I am doing this not to prove others are wrong but to challenge my own thoughts.

1. The assumption of obsoletion at 10 year, as you say it may be as good as any time frame we can find but there are loads still working fine, and we have heard of some with small costs for new inverters. Any cumulative interest would also continue to rise as the investment may need some additional servicing.
2. Tax on interest/earnings/investment/savings (Basic-rate taxpayers can earn £1,000/year tax-free and higher-rate taxpayers £500 for savings)
   1. We have to assume the person has not other savings that they have used their allowance on
3. We are at high rates of inflation relative to the last 10 years, they may continue to rise, they may fall
   1. Another quick search and normal people like me can get risk free returns at 5.12% but this is limited to £5,000
   2. 3.05% is the highest high street bank backed savings account for the £10995 pot we talked about last August
   3. The prediction was for the rate to hit 2.85% and rise up to 8.85% by year 4.
      1. I read about current estimates for it to raise another .5 and then stay that way
   4. Over the 10 year period, there is a risk that the interest rates do not rise and the return expected is not met
   5. However, other events may keep the unprecedented levels higher, we can't predict past a point in the future
4. We are at high unprecedented high costs of energy relative to the last 10 years, they may continue to rise, they may fall
   1. We absolutely have to be realistic that the cost of electricity will come down and any 'return from investment' will also reduce
      1. Current predictions are it will drop from ~£0.36 to £0.32 but may then fall further
      2. There is a risk that the cost of electricity will fall and the below table will be inaccurate
   2. However, other events may keep the unprecedented levels higher, we can't predict past a point in the future

Most of the above requires some assumptions and all points have risks that in realised will mean none of these figures are accurate. But running it again based on interest rates rising and energy prices falling a little further.
Feb 2023

					Units generated	unit price	Value of Generation
1​	10995​	313.3575​	2.85%​		5157.6​	0.36​	1856.736​
2​	11308.3575​	344.904904​	3.05%​		5157.6​	0.32​	1650.432​
3​	11653.2624​	413.690815​	3.55%​		5157.6​	0.28​	1444.128​
4​	12066.9532​	428.376839​	3.55%​		5157.6​	0.28​	1444.128​
5​	12495.3301​	443.584217​	3.55%​		5157.6​	0.28​	1444.128​
6​	12938.9143​	459.331457​	3.55%​		5157.6​	0.28​	1444.128​
7​	13398.2457​	475.637723​	3.55%​		5157.6​	0.28​	1444.128​
8​	13873.8835​	492.522863​	3.55%​		5157.6​	0.28​	1444.128​
9​	14366.4063​	510.007424​	3.55%​		5157.6​	0.28​	1444.128​
10​	14876.4137​	528.112688​	3.55%​		5157.6​	0.28​	1444.128​
						Total	15060.192​

Summary

1. The total lost opportunity cost is 35% over 10 years based on these figures, not 100%
2. The figures are near enough close to a draw over 10 years with no other investment
3. If the system needs no further investment past year 10, it will be making a clear return of investment
4. If you have other savings earning you interest, then Solar may be a better way to use the money
5. If you can also take advantage of a cheaper energy tariff because of your set up, then solar may be a better use of the money
   1. off peak charging for example

Please point out mistakes so I can correct them.

 

[Calimori]

Picking up some other points.

I have spoken to several estate agents and people looking to move house and know that some people are now looking for heat pumps, solar, storage ect. The general opinion was that you could see some value when selling, will this be the entire outlay remains to be seen but in some areas adding £16k onto the property is not going to make a massive difference to who views it, so you won't be pricing the house out of the local market.

Every technology has an improvement cycle, I was told by my Dad that I would never buy a TV if I was waiting for the next technology. The reality usually is that you can buy something now and it will be better than not having one, or the old one you had, I see solar as the same.
As for battery degradation. When mine eventually gives up out of the warranty in 2032, I have no doubt that there will be significantly larger and better batteries as a better price to replace it with. But there is also the very real situation where the battery just degrades slowly over time, it keeps working but with less storage or more losses and I only need to replace it when it affects what I want to do, it doesn't become obsolete overnight.

Wind turbines are a tough one to compare to solar. I have been looking for someone who has had one in an urban environment and never found someone, so I have only able to read written experiences and watch youtube videos. In the countryside, where you have a clear run for the wind on a lot of land, they appear to be very good but noisy. In urban environments, surrounded by other houses and street layouts, the wind isn't clear and this is not good for generation so returns seem very low. Getting them on their own pole can be costly and requires land and possible planning requirements. Attaching them to your house can send vibrations and noise into the property.
Water turbines are another which look promising if you have the available water flow, because you can have it generating 24hrs a day during a time you wouldn't have much solar. But who has a stream and the required drop in an urban environment.

The energy crisis has pushed a lot of panicked people to jump on Solar and there are scammers taking advantage of that. That is why folks should share their quotes and people can give them advice.

 

[paulg100]

Based on 5% saving rate!?!

Still waiting for my £15k's worth of crypto to far outperform any gain of investing in solar.

Im only at about 50% unrealized losses so far which is nothing in crypto so its going well

 

[Paul]

Wind turbines are a tough one to compare to solar. I have been looking for someone who has had one in an urban environment and never found someone, so I have only able to read written experiences and watch youtube videos. In the countryside, where you have a clear run for the wind on a lot of land, they appear to be very good but noisy. In urban environments, surrounded by other houses and street layouts, the wind isn't clear and this is not good for generation so returns seem very low. Getting them on their own pole can be costly and requires land and possible planning requirements. Attaching them to your house can send vibrations and noise into the property.
Water turbines are another which look promising if you have the available water flow, because you can have it generating 24hrs a day during a time you wouldn't have much solar. But who has a stream and the required drop in an urban environment.

I'd love to try one... I'm on the side of a mountain, and we get quite a bit of wind. Not as much as the rain (Would be better off building something hydro-electric in Wales as it rains virtually every single day )....

 

[Calimori]

I might still do a simple proof of concept for a wind turbine, just to annoy the neighbours.

 

[crsedgar]

I have a burn running through the garden, however these days 95% of the time it's a trickle and 5% a torrent that floods my garage.