How long does pinball have left?

[Jabe]

Here in the UK pinball feels quite inaccessible. In Brighton I can find a few machines dotted about to try, but as a beginner my skills are lacking and a game can last under a minute if I'm unlucky. Burning through a tenner in 15 minutes is an expensive way to have fun. The most I've enjoyed pinball so far is on a worn out Flintstones I found in a pub, I know it's probably not as good as the stern machines on the pier but I can at least I have games that last 10-15 minutes on it and win the odd free game.
Without the barcades in most cities like you find in North America I just can't see many younger people experiencing pinball here and getting hooked, without knowing people already in the hobby anyway.
It's anecdotal but I'm in my early 30's and I only know one person who is in to pinball, and he's out in North America where it's much more accessible. I can think of very few people my age who would have the space for a machine at home, let alone the funds to buy one even if they were really keen.

 

[Gonzo]

It's a numbers game, pure and simple.

Pinball used to be common but now it's rare. The mass population who grew up with it and for whom it's retro won't last forever.

Tens of millions of people playing pinball in the 60's, 70's, 80's & 90's have produced the current number of participants. Plainly and simply there are no longer tens of millions playing pinball so the future projections will reflect that.

Whatever is left will be niche. Pinball will survive but will there be the numbers remaining to sustain mass production? I suspect not.

Factor in less money, less time and less space and you have even fewer people.

Anyone who has been watching the TikTok CEO address the senate committee will know what's coming. The next generation of AI algorithm will make it next to impossible for theses poor youngsters to put their phones down. The AI knows what character type you are, knows when you're slowing down your phone use and knows precisely what to offer you to keep you hooked and online.

Pinball will not grow in future years. . . . the only question is how much it will shrink.

 

[Ashbo]

It's a numbers game, pure and simple.

Pinball used to be common but now it's rare. The mass population who grew up with it and for whom it's retro won't last forever.

Tens of millions of people playing pinball in the 60's, 70's, 80's & 90's have produced the current number of participants. Plainly and simply there are no longer tens of millions playing pinball so the future projections will reflect that.

Whatever is left will be niche. Pinball will survive but will there be the numbers remaining to sustain mass production? I suspect not.

Factor in less money, less time and less space and you have even fewer people.

Anyone who has been watching the TikTok CEO address the senate committee will know what's coming. The next generation of AI algorithm will make it next to impossible for theses poor youngsters to put their phones down. The AI knows what character type you are, knows when you're slowing down your phone use and knows precisely what to offer you to keep you hooked and online.

Pinball will not grow in future years. . . . the only question is how much it will shrink.

Time to enjoy the here and now then. Nothing lasts forever so appreciate what we have

 

[M4carp]

the only question is how much it will shrink.

Old age mate, we are doomed

 

[Gonzo]

Old age mate, we are doomed

Oh . . . that's already shrunk Dave

 

[Tilt_Birmingham]

Tens of millions of people playing pinball in the 60's, 70's, 80's & 90's have produced the current number of participants. Plainly and simply there are no longer tens of millions playing pinball so the future projections will reflect that.

Where you get those figures from?

I honestly think this thread is pointless speculation.

Nearly 38,000 machines on location atm on pinball map atm, in the US and Europe pinball is exploding... Locations opening on a weekly basis and people investing in pinball

UK has always been the grunt of the pack.... Back in the 80's when you had to source Stern Electronics via Germany and now where Europe gets first shipments as they are ordering 10 to everyone 1 we do!

Need more people to have the balls and actual business sense to realise pinball isn't profitable on its own, and look at models that work like @Chief, Retroids and Tilt

 

[M4carp]

Oh . . . that's already shrunk Dave

At least yours hasn’t been retired

 

[Gonzo]

At least yours hasn’t been retired

Awfully presumptuous of you mate

 

[VeeMonroe]

Anyone who has been watching the TikTok CEO address the senate committee will know what's coming. The next generation of AI algorithm will make it next to impossible for theses poor youngsters to put their phones down. The AI knows what character type you are, knows when you're slowing down your phone use and knows precisely what to offer you to keep you hooked and online.

You know about the rise of LPs and vintage film cameras, right? Or how big board gaming (low barrier to entry) is in the UK? That's basically sitting in a pub/bar/cafe punting a load of bits of cardboard around.

There are a lot of us whose jobs are entirely online who are desperate to deal with physical objects - as well as computer games - in our spare time. This is why the Metaverse crashed and burned spectacularly. Zuck is about the only person who wants to spend most of their time as a literally legless avatar. For everyone else, Ready Player One is a dystopia, not an instruction manual.

No one has any idea how many people are casually playing VPX/Zen Pinball, or playing in barcades in the US, or who get into pinball in the UK through visiting the US, and we won't know how much impact that has until the teens/20s/30-somethings can buy houses. That's going to take longer in the UK than the US because our housing market is screwed.

 

[s000m]

Being a millennial I don't see it personally, plenty of people I speak to who are owners are either my age or there abouts.

If anything it's my generation that's caused the spike in demand (COVID purchases). Suppose we'll see!

 

[Gonzo]

You know about the rise of LPs and vintage film cameras, right? Or how big board gaming (low barrier to entry) is in the UK? That's basically sitting in a pub/bar/cafe punting a load of bits of cardboard around.

There are a lot of us whose jobs are entirely online who are desperate to deal with physical objects - as well as computer games - in our spare time. This is why the Metaverse crashed and burned spectacularly. Zuck is about the only person who wants to spend most of their time as a literally legless avatar. For everyone else, Ready Player One is a dystopia, not an instruction manual.

No one has any idea how many people are casually playing VPX/Zen Pinball, or playing in barcades in the US, or who get into pinball in the UK through visiting the US, and we won't know how much impact that has until the teens/20s/30-somethings can buy houses. That's going to take longer in the UK than the US because our housing market is screwed.

I suspect we won't agree on this Vee (and yes, I am aware of LP's and vintage cameras, I was around when everyone had those too ).

There will always be people who gravitate to old retro stuff, but it's a niche. Without being able to validate my data , I suspect that for every person buying vinyl records there are multitude's more joining Spotify. Basically HMV and Our Price are not coming to a high street near you anytime soon but there will always be small pockets of people who love that stuff. I'm actually one of them and can't abide listening to downloaded music. Unfortunately most people I talk to music about don't even appreciate that what they're listening to has a lower dynamic range . . . . more importantly they don't care.

I just don't see this wave of people coming through (although I can see a trickle of new people entering the hobby). I guess it's hard to understand just how prevalent pinball was in the past if you're younger than 45 (ish) . . . .it was everywhere and has shrunk massively. I just can't see how less exposure to machines can produce more players, hence me saying it was a numbers game.

Ultimately time will tell. We'll either see an increase in production, more pinball companies, more participants, more pinball bars, competitions and increasingly busier pinball clubs or . . . . . a decrease. It's one of those debates which will be easy to validate in 20 years time I guess.

But it's a damn good conversation David.

 

[Sgt GrizZ]

Being a millennial I don't see it personally, plenty of people I speak to who are owners are either my age or there abouts.

If anything it's my generation that's caused the spike in demand (COVID purchases). Suppose we'll see!

Everyone’s take on it is different of course.

I only really see 50+ somethings who have been in it years and many in discussion are actively thinking of at least downsizing collections , curbing buying or even selling up in the coming years.
So unless there are the numbers of (younger) pinheads to soak up all these games , used prices for a start are going only one way.

 

[VeeMonroe]

Everyone’s take on it is different of course.

I only really see 50+ somethings who have been in it years and many in discussion are actively thinking of at least downsizing collections , curbing buying or even selling up in the coming years.
So unless there are the numbers of (younger) pinheads to soak up all these games , used prices for a start are going only one way.

Yeah, I'm the same as @s000m. I even sold @s00m a pin! I meet a load of people like @MajesticPinball, @David_Vi, @Hiltoncriss, @Chris P and @Jackpot as well as the crowd at Pinball Republic Thursday night league, and the vast majority aren't 50+ (unless I'm getting my ages muddled). Many of them have older pins (e.g. @MajesticPinball with his EMs and Gottlieb's), have a handful of modern Sterns, share a large collection with multiple older friends/family members, or are currently building bigger collections and often sharing them as part of a social scene.

There are older gents, but they tend not to talk to me and - if they do - they often act embarrassed for some reason. The younger guys and gals are much keener to chat. Is that a generational thing? A 'been in the hobby a long time and are shy about newbies' thing? Or just a 'OMG it's a 43-year-old woman playing pinball' thing? I've got no idea, but I don't get to talk to the older guys as much

 

[VeeMonroe]

I suspect we won't agree on this Vee (and yes, I am aware of LP's and vintage cameras, I was around when everyone had those too ).

It's just hard to believe that you need arcades and nostalgia to produce pinball players when my personal experience is that I'd never played a pinball machine before 2021

I mean, I know these sorts of hobbies are weird and niche, but there are a lot of us weirdo niche hobbyists around. I mean, modern board gaming is a pretty niche weird hobby, and the latest Gloomhaven Kickstarter made $5 million. That's $5 million from just those weirdos who want to push cardboard standees around a map in a ringbinder and pretend we're fighting monsters And, bear in mind, up until about 1995, the only board games most people outside Germany had played were Monopoly (which is s**t) and Risk (which is slightly less s**t, but the 15-minute dice version is better).

 

[Sgt GrizZ]

Yeah, I'm the same as @s000m. I even sold @s00m a pin! I meet a load of people like @MajesticPinball, @David_Vi, @Hiltoncriss, @Chris P and @Jackpot as well as the crowd at Pinball Republic Thursday night league, and the vast majority aren't 50+ (unless I'm getting my ages muddled). Many of them have older pins (e.g. @MajesticPinball with his EMs and Gottlieb's), have a handful of modern Sterns, share a large collection with multiple older friends/family members, or are currently building bigger collections and often sharing them as part of a social scene.

There are older gents, but they tend not to talk to me and - if they do - they often act embarrassed for some reason. The younger guys and gals are much keener to chat. Is that a generational thing? A 'been in the hobby a long time and are shy about newbies' thing? Or just a 'OMG it's a 43-year-old woman playing pinball' thing? I've got no idea, but I don't get to talk to the older guys as much

Well hopefully they form an orderly queue when I sell up

Anyone want Mick On A Stick ? ….. anyone ? Hellooooo ? Craggy old man in a band skipping about , you’ve seen him, Any takers ?

 

[VeeMonroe]

Well hopefully they form an orderly queue when I sell up

Anyone want Mick On A Stick ? ….. anyone ? Hellooooo ? Craggy old man in a band skipping about , you’ve seen him, Any takers ?

Well, if he's cheap... and good...

After all, I have a pin about fishing, which is possibly the most boring hobby possible.

 

[David_Vi]

It's just hard to believe that you need arcades and nostalgia to produce pinball players

To produce enough pinball players/hobbyists.

Nearly everyone knew what pinball was for decades, until I guess the late 90s early 00s. Some of those went on to be collectors and hobbyists now, from a huge amount of people.

We don't have that huge amount of people now. Where are those young people with enough disposable income to buy NIB pins in 10 years?
I think you'll find most of the PBR crowd is 40+, a lot grew up with pinball in arcades and most of those with collections have retired early, have no mortgage or are in decent jobs.
I don't see that happening for the next generations.

To add, most of the younger people have parents who were into it or are susceptible to this kind of hobby, (on the spectrum ) so get really into it.
(Also James grew up seeing pinball, but I believe he was lucky in where he grew up)

 

[VeeMonroe]

We don't have that huge amount of people now. Where are those young people with enough disposable income to buy NIB pins in 10 years?

Yeah, but there are two different things going on here. One is that people like @Sgt GrizZ are saying they're going to be offloading collections of vintage pins that no one wants to buy. You're talking about NIB.

The UK is in the trash in GDP, exchange rates and global standing right now. The housing market is screwed and everything imported from the States (or Europe) tears you a new one cost-wise. Imagine that the next government changed planning law and, suddenly, house prices tanked and young people were able to buy - not rent - like the older generation did? Or that the UK economy got sorted out (not going to get political here about reasons) and it didn't cost an arm-and-a-leg to import from the States. Also imagine that pinball prices tanked because people like @Sgt GrizZ were offloading pins onto eBay like they were going out of fashion. How many people do you think would buy something they'd seen on VPX in that world? And how many of them might go onto buy a NIB?

If you assume pinball's gone forever, you're assuming that everything stays the same as it is now. And the one thing you can guarantee is that nothing stays the same.

 

[M4carp]

Well, if he's cheap... and good...

After all, I have a pin about fishing, which is possibly the most boring hobby possible.

No way

 

[Sgt GrizZ]

Well, if he's cheap... and good...

After all, I have a pin about fishing, which is possibly the most boring hobby possible.

Sorry - I was kind of throwing 2 in jokes in there for folk that have known me a while to have a chuckle.

Firstly I’ve been talking about selling up and getting out of this madness for years - prob since stopped putting the Slam shows on Still haven’t . And hell still hasn’t frozen over.

Secondly - sadly Mick on A Stick prob gets as much abuse and derision as poor old Popeye used to and is on very few peoples wanted lists , but I love it and probably one of the last I would let go.

Anyway. Top discussion all round . Best thing is we have to wait years to find out. Reunion party in 2040 to see how it’s all going I’ll do it from beyond the grave if necessary , using A.I or something

 

[David_Vi]

How many people do you think would buy something they'd seen on VPX in that world? And how many of them might go onto buy a NIB?

So what's the VPX demographic? I don't think it's young people. Noones stumbling upon it like pinball pre 2000s.

I feel like you're missing the point and underestimate how pinball used to be everywhere and now it is nowhere except private collections and a handful of struggling venues

 

[PeteB]

Economics does play a big part in all of this. Will there be a few wealthy Millennials in 10-15 years with big enough houses and a desire to buy a few pins? Of course, but nothing like numbers we've seen previously.

Would agree Film photography and Vinyl records are another niche hobby that will continue to thrive, but look at the difference in pricing. Anyone with an average income can skip a night out and use that money to buy a few rolls of film or some new records. Can't exactly do that when it comes to dropping 10k on a pin though.

I have the same feeling with classic cars, the market will collapse in 10-20 years. Not enough interest, not enough wealth, not enough space.

 

[VeeMonroe]

Economics does play a big part in all of this. Will there be a few wealthy Millennials in 10-15 years with big enough houses and a desire to buy a few pins? Of course, but nothing like numbers we've seen previously.

Would agree Film photography and Vinyl records are another niche hobby that will continue to thrive, but look at the difference in pricing. Anyone with an average income can skip a night out and use that money to buy a few rolls of film or some new records. Can't exactly do that when it comes to dropping 10k on a pin though.

I think that’s the point I’m making. Board gaming is massive. Everyone doing a geeky job seems to play, but - as you say - you can pick up a card game for £10-£15.

The thing is that @David_Vi is talking about NIB, but that’s controlled by US prices. So, if the UK ends up being a sh*thole in ten years’ time then the prices of stuff already here will fall until people can afford it. That’s not the same as ‘the hobby will collapse’. NIB in the UK isn’t the be-all-and-end-all of pinball!

 

[johnwhitfield]

I suspect if you’re young enough to be under 40 it’s hard to imagine how prevalent pins were around the country.
Until the mid 90s they would literally be in every town. Hell my village had two.

I can’t ever see those types of numbers coming back.

 

[Sgt GrizZ]

I suspect if you’re young enough to be under 40 it’s hard to imagine how prevalent pins were around the country.
Until the mid 90s they would literally be in every town. Hell my village had two.

I can’t ever see those types of numbers coming back.

Good point - in our small market town and tiny village where my parents lived and I was there until early 20s there were 3 pubs all with pins for a while. That is where my addiction started when the T2 arrived in the gig pub God I played that so much , and there was always someone on it. Others I recall rotating through were Blsck Rose, Dr Who, Star Trek 25th, Fish Tales.
Cambridge had a good few pins in pubs and bars too - my first run ins with Wh20 and Jurassic Park spring to mind.
Bowling alleys and the laser quest place had pins too. I even played a BSD in a Burger King
None of those places have had pins for many many years now .

 

[David_Vi]

I think that’s the point I’m making. Board gaming is massive. Everyone doing a geeky job seems to play, but - as you say - you can pick up a card game for £10-£15.

The thing is that @David_Vi is talking about NIB, but that’s controlled by US prices. So, if the UK ends up being a sh*thole in ten years’ time then the prices of stuff already here will fall until people can afford it. That’s not the same as ‘the hobby will collapse’. NIB in the UK isn’t the be-all-and-end-all of pinball!

I'm not just referring to NIB but the pinball hobby in general. It's been said many times in this thread. When the main demographic in the UK moves on where do all their games go? They won't all be sold for cheap.
Where's the new blood? A trickle doesn't count.

 

[David_Vi]

I suspect if you’re young enough to be under 40 it’s hard to imagine how prevalent pins were around the country.
Until the mid 90s they would literally be in every town. Hell my village had two.

I can’t ever see those types of numbers coming back.

This is what I'm thinking and I think @VeeMonroe doesn't realise.
If they were everywhere, nearly everyone was exposed to them... So those who would get into pinball did... And here they are with collections.

What's that saying? Cast a big net, or something
There's no big net anymore

 

[johnwhitfield]

It’s a similar situation with vinyl. Younger people think it’s big now but compared to the 70s/80s sales are tiny. I blame daytime tv for giving people something else to do rather than listening to music.

The world is so different now. Some things are great. You can have a niche hobby and find similar people all over the world.

I was looking at a 12” from the Damned a little while back. Inside was a list of the 1986 tour dates. About 40 in a row just in the uk. Playing central London then Woolwich then back to Catford. Now if bands play 4 gigs it’s considered a tour.

There was a lot **** about the uk in the past though. I don’t miss the dodgy sun heating lamps in the bathroom or being taught in porta cabins.

Everything has a shelf life. We’re in a good time for home owned pins despite the cost of them. I’m far from convinced my kids would want mine when I shuffle off.

 

[FinalFight]

One of the most important things even if the younger gens do love pinball and can own them they also need repair guys around or be willing to learn to repair as nowadays most things that break they are dumped and replaced for the latest model. Just cant see most being bothered to do that to be honest its not like years ago when people used to have a go at fixing anything

 

[SteadyP]

The future of pinball doesn’t depend on the UK economy- it’s 90% dependent on the US economy. If the s*it hits the fan again with their tanking property market, expect lots of NIB buyers to stop buying games. Many new US pinball YouTubers openly discussing buying games on finance