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OT: Covid boosters

Excellent stuff Wayne. Any chance you could overlay this with deaths from all causes in a non-covid year.

Like the 30,000 people that died in 2018 of Flu and Pneumonia alone? We could then really get some perspective of where Covid sits in the UK mortality table. I fear the 750,000 missed undiagnosed cancer appointments might kill more people than lockdown saves. This is a terrible disease.
 
The independent Sage had a presentation on this today.

Back of a fag packet about 80- 85% of all ICU covid admissions are because of direct covid problems, about 15-20% were with covid for other things - car accident, broken bone etc, or where they have gone on to catch it in hospital.

I’d urge you to watch Professor Pagal’s statistics section as I think it provides a lot of answers to your questions.

 
Tucks said:
I fear the 750,000 missed undiagnosed cancer appointments might kill more people than lockdown saves. This is a terrible disease.
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Agree it is a terrible disease.

We must be careful not to make this false opposition between lockdown and missed diagnoses. If the system was completely overrun I.e we hadn’t locked down, this would have been far worse. Indeed part of the reason the vast majority of the public supported the measures was to allow some sense of a normal health service to remain.
 
Tucks said:
Excellent stuff Wayne. Any chance you could overlay this with deaths from all causes in a non-covid year.

Like the 30,000 people that died in 2018 of Flu and Pneumonia alone? We could then really get some perspective of where Covid sits in the UK mortality table. I fear the 750,000 missed undiagnosed cancer appointments might kill more people than lockdown saves. This is a terrible disease.
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I don't have the details of Flu deaths, or deaths potentially related to missed diagnosis of other diseases, nor for that matter deaths related to masturbating while gagged and choked.

The fact of the matter is it isn't relevant to my post. There's nothing to be gained by "what-iffery", and "what about".

One thing is certain is that the more people that keep up to date with vaccines, the more people that wear face masks at every opportunity, that limit social interaction (we've taken the decision to cancel our weekly Thursday Night Tea Drinking / Pinball get togethers :oops:)will reduce the number of infections, reduce the number of hospital admissions and thus not only reduce the number of deaths directly from Covid, but also allow the NHS to see more patients for other treatments including cancer diagnosis and elective orthopaedic surgeries.

@AlanJ I also don't have figures as to how many people contracted Covid in hospital, or any details of where ANYBODY actually contracted Covid. That is not what Drs do - they treat people for the sickness that is presented in front of them, they don't necessarily play detective as to where they got it from, nor pass judgement on how they got it. Likewise if someone comes in with a gunshot wound they treat the injury, not try and find out who shot them or why.
 
We’ve got people posting about the Great Barrington Declaration funded by the Koch brothers, big oil, and climate change deniers and it’s the formative UK scientists who are acting with some secretive agenda to oppress us?

I literally give up.
 
Everyone has an agenda.

There is no e=mc squared here. No F=MA

These guys are all guessing.

The health guys are guessing
The economists are guessing (as always)
The forecasters are guessing (as always)

The greatest lie of all is "following the science". There is no settled opinion here.

Neil Ferguson has a terrible forecasting record. Ir beggars belief that the government listen to him.

Trashing the economy is not costless. All the furlough guys, the bounce back loans, the printed money ..... it ain't free

Inflation will go right up. That will impoverish millions. Even pensioners - as many are capped at 2.5 per cent inflation increases for example.

Real interest rates are now minus 5 per cent. A long term stable average might be plus 2 per cent. This is a tax on literally everything, every asset you own.

There has never been an open, proper public debate about the net effect of all this.

Obsessing about covid, ignoring literally everything else - kids educations, cancer, the leisure sector, so called elective surgery like knee replacements.

This could be like the Easter Islanders obsessing about stone idols and believing that more stone idols were the answer to their growing problems.
 
Ha Ha. Either way you slice it, it's all politics.

Anyhow, really good to hear all points of view as we've all been affected by this in different ways so we are all naturally going to have a different view on things.

We all love pinball and that's what counts. Now, favourite pin you want to see made in 2022?

I'll start with a 3 flipper game, upper playfield, Zombie yeti artwork, coded by Lyman and called 'The COVID WARS' ;)
 
DRD said:
There is no e=mc squared here. No F=MA

These guys are all guessing.

The health guys are guessing
The economists are guessing (as always)
The forecasters are guessing (as always)

The greatest lie of all is "following the science". There is no settled opinion here.
Click to expand...

DRD said:
There has never been an open, proper public debate about the net effect of all this.
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Easily understood why there hasn't been - as much as you keep insisting against it, the weight of everyone's opinions individually is NOT the same, the quality of the 'research' behinds everyone's opinion is NOT the same.

The quality of your 'guess', as someone who is only now involved in it because of a 'sharp shock' they had, is not the same as the 'guess' from people that dedicate their lives to a science.

Public debate is worthless nowadays as people just flock to sexy ideas that please them.
 
Record number of cases today. oh but a record number of tests done too. as others have said - approx2 week lag to see the deaths spike as a result. I am hopeful/confident the combination of the vaccines plus the fact that many of the positive tests are the younger less likely to die populace- will result in no where near the number of deaths we would have seen otherwise (based on stats from last year and earlier this year when we had the other 3 waves).

Worryingly a COBRA meeting happening this weekend!
 
Let’s hope so @AlanJ

We are nearing testing capacity so the quoted figure may never get much higher than 100k.

There’s a big spike in cases for primary age children and also several dozen hospitalised last week. It’s finding a way to get to everyone it seems.
 
Take this at face value but my wife works as a supplier to the NHS and her team were talking to the Dept of Health today. They are preparing for a lockdown starting in the New Year and anticipate major staff shortages and possibly having to close wards and/ or hospitals.

Whether that changes or not before the NY is anyone’s guess.
 
I have just filled my oil tank. Guys on here should think hard about critical supplies- fuel, generator?, MOT running out soon ? ....

Winter is coming. If you have the working capital stock up while you can
 
Having just done a stint on a generator with a power cut I can tell you for sure if you think we need to stock up on generators petro and oils, we are boned before we start. This will all blow over but the reproductions will be felt for along time
 
I am lucky enough to have a modern so called classic. A 90s merc with 80l fuel tank. It appreciates, costs below 200 insurance. It is a perfect fuel tank.

Honda eu 20i generator, new model is eu22i. Smooth enough to run a computer, router etc. With extension leads you can power fridge, freezer, central heating pump...... I bought mine years ago as my wife works from home and backup made perfect business sense.
Fire it up every couple or months so she is ready to go, use pure petrol without ethanol in it to keep the carb clean.

Hopefully it will not come to this but the UK has depleted its gas storage reserves, the North Sea ain't what it was, energy prices are spiking, low wind is forecast.

Even California has power cuts.
 
You just do what you can. Maybe 15 yrs ago my village was cut off from electricity for over a week.

I have figured out that a 2kw genny can do enough. You rotate what is connected. Make sure your central heating and hot water are powered by a 13a plug. Cellular has backup diesel generators where we are.

When you do some digging you figure out how important gas bottles are. A lot of energy right there
 
Further to the earlier post. Staff shortages are a real issue. School’s are struggling as either staff are ill or they have young children themselves who are. Either way it takes staff out and sooner or later you get an unsafe ratio of children to adults. (After Soham and the recent child neglect cases I don’t see unvetted parents being drafted in)

All the supply agencies are pretty much tapped out. I was contacted this week by one I had registered back in 2008 with 😂

There’s a drive on to get teachers out of retirement but no funds have been made available to pay them which is a bit of an oversight. (Meanwhile agencies are making an absolute killing. Even in normal times their commission is eye watering)

More than anything else this could cause schools to close (but fingers crossed it won’t come to that. We’ve currently got 30 or so ill but they should hopefully be recovered by the Jan opening).
 
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AlanJ said:
Lockdown: Is it Monday or New Years Monday? Place your bets.
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I don’t know Alan but tomorrow I’m going to the local Asian supermarket to grab a 25kg bag of rice, 24 cans of tinned tomatoes and a big bag of spuds to make sure we aren’t short of curry when the **** hits the fan!
 
My money is on the 28th for pubs/clubs.

I’ve got a load of gigs lined up for Jan, I’d bet they don’t happen.
 
AlanJ said:
Record number of cases today. oh but a record number of tests done too.
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Record number of cases for several days in a row now - and it’s almost impossible to get tested in London at the moment. I know several people with symptoms who can’t get one. It looks like we’re at testing capacity in some areas at least, which means positive case numbers going forwards will be even less accurate than before.

johnwhitfield said:
Further to the earlier post. Staff shortages are a real issue. School’s are struggling as either staff are ill or they have young children themselves who are.
Click to expand...

A friend of mine had one of her kids break up a few days early this week because of so many teachers at the school having positive tests.

johnwhitfield said:
My money is on the 28th for pubs/clubs.

I’ve got a load of gigs lined up for Jan, I’d bet they don’t happen.
Click to expand...

We’re meant to be going away for the first time since Oct 19 in late Jan. Not particularly optimistic at this point
 
Pooman2084 said:
I don’t know Alan but tomorrow I’m going to the local Asian supermarket to grab a 25kg bag of rice, 24 cans of tinned tomatoes and a big bag of spuds to make sure we aren’t short of curry when the **** hits the fan!
Click to expand...
Don't forget any shortages will be exacerbated by the usual stocking up for Christmas, when the shops are shut for ONE DAY!!!!! ;)
 
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