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Oxford Vaccine 70.4% Effective - 90% With Modified Dosing

There's been a few people commenting here that it helps reduce the R rate, or that vaccine will help reduce transmission etc. Nope. There's no evidence yet that that happens. What they are testing for with the vaccines is that people don't suffer any effects of the virus, but vaccinated people are still capable of receiving and transmitting the virus.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31976-0/fulltext
 
Looks like that article is out of date. I've since heard it does reduce transmission... there are never enough facts around..!

Hope all is well Paul!
 
Yeah in fairness the Oxford guy said there were some indications of that taking place, but my understanding is that very few vaccines provide sterilising immunity. Bit early yet I suppose, but I guess what I'm saying is we can't be complacent about things once these vaccines start getting distributed. There's still good chances a vaccinated person could infect a vulnerable person.
 
domlouis said:
Not wanting to dampen anyone's high hopes but have i read this right: they took two groups of people of the same size, in the first group 100 people got sick and the second one 30 people got sick. So that's how they decided that it was 70% efficient. I am no statistician but wouldn't you need the groups to be much larger in numbers to be able to confidently declare an efficiency level?
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I am an actuary and also wrote my dissertation on epidemiology and worked in statistically analysing clinical trials for a time (so probably qualify as a statistician). The Oxford press release states that all results are statistically significant with p<=0.0001 so they are almost certain that they declare the efficiency level with confidence (i.e. 1 in 10,000 chance that they got it wrong). The trials would have been designed with sufficient numbers participating to get this confidence level (otherwise no point in doing them).

Despite working in probabilty for 30 years + it has always surprised me just how small a group you need to be able to get results you can be confident in the results. The Birthday Paradox is a good demonstration of surprising results that you can get in probablity / statistics. If you have 23 people in a room it is more likely than not that two of them will share the same birthday. It just doesn't seem credible, but is easily proven with probabilty.

The Oxford vaccine is a complete game changer due to its low cost / ease of manufacture / ease of distribution / speed to roll out. If we had to choose just one vaccine I would go with the Oxford one. We just all need to be patient whilst it is rolled out so that we don't get a repeat of the first wave in the coming months. There's going to be one huge party all next Summer to look forward to!
 
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A friend of mine is getting the Oxford vaccine next week under section 178 temporary approval. So looks like it’s ready to go, after approval general public will be ramped up very quickly.
 
James said:
A friend of mine is getting the Oxford vaccine next week under section 178 temporary approval. So looks like it’s ready to go, after approval general public will be ramped up very quickly.
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Yep my wife's hospital are getting it for staff very soon.
 
The Black Country NHS workers (over 218k) are getting the Pfizer vaccine in about a week.

As Walsall Manor Hospital is the only place which has suitable storage freezers, they will ALL be getting their jabs here - TWICE.

It also can't be done as a drive through. It's going to be a bit on the busy side!
Public will be getting theirs at the Bescott stadium, presumably the Oxford vaccine.
 
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