Concerns about the Dollar

[dave]

Somewhat ironic given that the out campaign is almost entirely based on fear and xenophobia..

And the IN isn't? Come on, it works both ways, but the actual fear mongering really is from the IN. You won't be "safer or stronger" if you want to come out. The economy will sink overnight.

What's so scary about wanting to govern our own country "again", control immigration & take back the £350+ million a week that is shipped out to "un elected" bureaucrats to **** up the wall and pass our laws ?

 

[JT.]

I don't know how to form any opinion either way. Galloway and Farage lack any credibility in my eyes, and I doubt BJ's' intentions are open and honest. But I don't believe a word that comes out of Cameron's mouth either. The right-wing arguments to stay in seem to be based on scare-mongering. But this is an unprecedented event, so the outcomes can't be predicted - economists couldn't predict the financial crisis, despite there being a huge empirical evidence base to work with - in this case they have nothing to go on other than supposition and guess work. On top of that, much of what we hear is coming from the mouths of people with deeply rooted vested interests in the status-quo, so far from impartial.

Then the left-wing reasons to stay seem to be along the lines that we need the EU to help keep our own government's right wing policies in check e.g. the EU being responsible for ensuring UK workers get sickness and maternity pay, etc - whilst I believe those laws are a good thing for the majority of society, I'm not convinced the answer is for a non-democratically elected body (the EU) to be making those things happen; we need to look closer to home and think about who we are electing and the policies they bring, or have some democratic say in who runs the EU.

When it comes to leaving, I've not seen any well put arguments. My own personal take is that the free movement of people as it works today does little more than promote the neo-liberal ideals of the the elite class - i.e. it just leads to a race to the bottom in terms of pay for the majority of people, but increases in profits for those that own companies and their shares (I know there are exceptions, where qualified people are filling genuine vacancies in, for example, the health service - but I do think they are an exception rather than the rule). I don't see how this is a good thing for society as a whole.

So personally I'm left in a quandary due to a total lack of what I consider to be legitimate information about either side of the argument.

 

[Replay]

Somewhat ironic given that the out campaign is almost entirely based on fear and xenophobia.




Well, I'm out of this discussion.

Too depressing to bother and only confirms the concerns expressed in my earlier post.

As is the IN campaign.

Bottom line is everyone has a bias based on vested interests.

And history has shown no one can predict what will happen whether we go IN or OUT.

I don't think anyone on the planet predicted many of the financial events of the last decade. All the so called experts have not predicted 8 years of almost zero interest rates for example.

So, everyone is just guessing really.

 

[DRD]

@Jsyjay

I think that percentages can miss the point here.

I grew up in a rural backwater. There was not one foreign born perśon in any of my primary and comprehensive school classes until I was 16. The only times I really interacted with foreigners were when we did school exchanges

At 16 I obtained a scholarship to a boarding school. For the first time a school I attended had a few foreign born pupils. But to be perfectly honest these guys did not form ethnic or national cliques and were well integrated with and they pursued similar interests to their classmates. These guys had generally boarded in the uk since being about 7 years old, and lived very closely with british folk. The thai lads did tend to be good at badminton, and that really improved my game

At 18 i went to a university where 50 per cent of students were foreign. My hall of residence had 75 per cent foreign students as you could remain in it over the Christmas and Easter holidays. I then saw what "birds of a feather flock together" means. The germans hung out together, as did the malaysians, as did the norwegians (despite their phenomenal command of English) ..... My university had all manner of societies which reinforced this natural bonding. Just looking at the website now there is the afro-caribbean, albanian, arabic, austrian, baltic, bulgarian, chinese, columbian, cypriot societies ....

So if some folk in the UK are uncomfortable with some aspects of multiculturalism like Sharia courts (which do exist in the uk), honour killings, forced marriage, birth defects resulting from close family members marrying, racially motivated child abuse on an industrial scale, female genital mutilation, trojan horse plots in schools ....... National percentages are of little comfort if these practices are emerging in their own communities. And as ever it will be the socially and economically weaker members of our society who are less able to distance themselves from the things they may wish to. Less able to fund a way out of it. And less able to eloquently express their views.

I have dated and loved foreign girls. Married one. But I do recognise that not everyone has had the same positive experiences that I have. And whether they have or haven't and regardless of how ineloquent they may be, they should be able to express their views. No-one listened to those poor young girls in Rotherham, Oxford, Rochdale .....

 

[Kenny Taylor]

What I don't agree with is the current open door policy we have for every euro citizen and soon to be many euro migrants who once they get euro citizenship will eventually land here. No checks on criminal records, some with large families which is an even bigger burden on our welfare/NHS. My partner works for the NHS and health tourism does exist. We need a point system for everyone entering the uk. non-euro citizens and euro citizens. It always amazes me how all these migrants paperwork seem to be lost. Who on earth travels without any paperwork.

 

[DRD]

Genuine victims of atrocities who are genuine refugees worthy of support. And fakers unworthy of support.

 

[Kenny Taylor]

I have a friend who's from Uganda. Studied here. Got her masters. Paid her fees in full. Been here for 5+ years. Contributes in taxes, good English, intelligent, enjoys living here, really nice person. Parents have good jobs in Uganda and support her. She is under threat of losing her visa. These are the people we need..

 

[DRD]

I think that this is where the 16 year old girl nails it. She humiliated the Conservative Minister. I do not believe that the Conservative Minister is stupid, she is just peddling stuff she knows to be untrue. Further destroying public confidence in politics

 

[dave]

No-one listened to those poor young girls in Rotherham, Oxford, Rochdale .....

Unfortunately many people still don't know this went on up there, very Savillesque.

 

[DRD]

These people, potentially well meaning, who shout racist, fascist, xenophobe etc at the first sign of a discussion about immigration and integration have blood on their hands. They want to kill a conversation that needs to happen.

Thousands of underprivileged, underage girls across the uk have suffered because of this so called political correctness. The ramifications for these poor girls will span generations. It is the only topic that has angered me to the point that I actually took the time to write to my MP about it. He wrote back assuring meaningful action

 

[Paul]

Slowly Recovering today.....

 

[Paul]

He wrote back assuring meaningful action

*points out the window*... Look! a unicorn.....

 

[Arv]

Bounced nicely off support the other day, still in bearish territory though.

 

[johnwhitfield]

I've never really understood why people in the "out" camp believe that coming out of the EU will suddenly solve their perceived immigration issues.

Over the last 13 years I'd estimate I've taught about 1000 children maybe a couple of hundred more. Out of these 1000 I've taught less than 10 children from what would be classed as "white British" backgrounds. I've then taught less than 30 who have originated from EU countries.

The remaining 940 (ish) have come from an Asian or African background.

Does this mean there is a problem with our borders? Is this a good thing? Whatever your view of these questions the EU freedom of movement has nothing to do with this immigration.

Finally, not trolling but genuinely interested. About 2 million British people live in Spain. If we withdraw from the EU and freedom of movement / residential rights are scrapped what would happen to these people? Would we suddenly have to accept them back into the UK? I'd suspect a lot of them are economically inactive so I doubt Spain would grant them work permits. It's not something I've heard discussed from either camp.

 

[DRD]

There will be massive speculation on the pound in coming months. There will be huge volatility

This is not entirely analogous to the ERM in 1992. But if sterling tanks, there will be a silver lining. 1993 to 1997 was a golden era for the UK economy

 

[ducks]

Slowly Recovering today.....

View attachment 27275

I would say it's a dead cat bounce, but it's a response to polling data that shows Boris, Gove et al's declaration of support for out only seemed to provide temporary support to the Brexit camp. Support for an exit has since fallen again. Bookies and the market at Betfair reflect this too. If any data suggests the opposite, there'll be heavy losses again.

 

[Arv]

Looks like a dead cat, but I think they are probably "pricing in" the brexit.

 

[Paul]

I'm sure this thread was entitled "CONCERNS ABOUT THE DOLLAR"...

 

[ducks]

There will be massive speculation on the pound in coming months. There will be huge volatility

This is not entirely analogous to the ERM in 1992. But if sterling tanks, there will be a silver lining. 1993 to 1997 was a golden era for the UK economy

Aside from that argument being entirely hollow, per my earlier post, Sterling was not particularly weak between 93 and 97. Even though it fell from ~$2/£1 to ~$1.41 practically in moments as we left the ERM, it fell no further and there was no real prospect of it doing so. Historically that is not low, especially as it picked up fairly quickly afterwards. That we've already touched 1.38 purely on uncertainty about an exit (not pricing an actual exit) should give you some idea how disastrous the markets think an exit is likely to prove. We nearly hit parity in '85 amid concerns of the economy faltering and the Thatcher government not being able to deliver the kind of spending cuts and privatisation that the IMF demanded. It'll get worse than that if we leave.

Looks like a dead cat, but I think they are probably "pricing in" the brexit.

They're absolutely not. They won't until polling data suggests that they should. The problem is that the polling data may not be the most accurate reflection of the actual vote, as I expressed earlier.

 

[DRD]

Another part of this will be the Tories potentially tearing themselves apart.

No-one sensible seriously thought that Corbyn could ever walk into number 10. But if the Tories disintegrate this could happen. Boris and Cameron slugging it out ..... Europe has the ability to split the Tories. Probably why Labour and Corbyn (a lifelong opponent of the EU) largely keeping schtum.

Then you would see a proper collapse in sterling

 

[Arv]

Aside from that argument being entirely hollow, per my earlier post, Sterling was not particularly weak between 93 and 97. Even though it fell from ~$2/£1 to ~$1.41 practically in moments as we left the ERM, it fell no further and there was no real prospect of it doing so. Historically that is not low, especially as it picked up fairly quickly afterwards. That we've already touched 1.38 purely on uncertainty about an exit (not pricing an actual exit) should give you some idea how disastrous the markets think an exit is likely to prove. We nearly hit parity in '85 amid concerns of the economy faltering and the Thatcher government not being able to deliver the kind of spending cuts and privatisation that the IMF demanded. It'll get worse than that if we leave.



They're absolutely not. They won't until polling data suggests that they should. The problem is that the polling data may not be the most accurate reflection of the actual vote, as I expressed earlier.

Have to disagree, I think they are walking it down so if we stay its gonna fly back up again with a rocket up its ****. We will see.

 

[ducks]

Have to disagree, I think they are walking it down so if we stay its gonna fly back up again with a rocket up its ****. We will see.

The latter I agree with, though interest rates will serve as some kind of brake. Growth will likely be weak in Q2 as business won't spend heavily amid uncertainty, so rate rises will be delayed by that most likely, even if we remain in.

The former, I don't think it's anywhere even close to being priced in.

 

[DRD]

Varying expectations are what make markets

 

[Paul]

indeed. Markets (money moreso than stocks) hate uncertainty - hence the instability. It just happens that currently there is a rather large one!

 

[DRD]

Biggest European uncertainty in many years. If we vote for a Brexit, other EU countries could demand their own referenda and the whole thing could then unravel.

Merkel needs to fix her immigration thing, and fast.

 

[dave]

I've never really understood why people in the "out" camp believe that coming out of the EU will suddenly solve their perceived immigration issues.

It's impossible to control anything within the EU, simple as that.

From day one it was 1/3 and those markets haven't moved at all...a decent sized bet of 20K went on leave when Boris came out.

Trump could maybe do something with the 19 trillion debt (just print more money?, works all the time right) but even that won't save it and they would never let him in. Everyone's gonna ditch the petro dollar, it's been on the cards for years.

Corruption's everywhere, just waiting for the BOOM.

 

[DRD]

Increasing the population through net inward immigration has been a quick fix to the country's woes seized upon by politicians and civil servants for years.